The Origin and Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Expert Survey

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View the Methodological and Analytical Annex

Exactly how the COVID-19 pandemic began remains a topic of considerable scientific and political debate. However, the opinions expressed in the debate have thus far come from an ad hoc mix of experts and commentators who have spoken up. Therefore, a research team led by the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) and Nemesys Insights conducted a rigorous survey of global expert opinion. The anonymous survey included …

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All-Hazards Policy for Global Catastrophic Risk

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There are many similarities and linkages between the global catastrophic risks, as well as synergies in measures to address them. For these and other reasons, GCRI has an active program on cross-risk evaluation & prioritization. Unfortunately, policy for global catastrophic risk often focuses on one risk at a time, failing to take advantage of the ways to address multiple global catastrophic risks concurrently. Therefore, this report develops a cross-risk, “all-hazards” approach to policy for global catastrophic risk.

The …

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Even With Electric Vehicles, An Expanded Turnpike Extension Would Be Bad For The Environment

View the article “Even With Electric Vehicles, An Expanded Turnpike Extension Would Be Bad For The Environment”.

There is currently a heated policy debate over a part of the New Jersey Turnpike across from Lower Manhattan (circled in the image above). The Turnpike Authority has proposed replacing and expanding this stretch of road. The governor supports it, but most local politicians oppose it. This article argues against the Turnpike expansion, detailing its environmental harms and instead calling for investment in transit, cycling, and walking. It …

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New York’s Housing Plans Must Address Affordability—& Climate Change

View the article “New York’s Housing Plans Must Address Affordability—& Climate Change”.

New York City is one of the most energy-efficient places in the United States, thanks to its high population density and excellent (by US standards) transit. However, it is also one of the most expensive places, thanks to its extremely high cost of housing. This article calls for an ambitious increase in the local housing supply to address both affordability and climate change. It is published in City Limits, a news publication …

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Assessing Natural Global Catastrophic Risks

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Humanity today faces a wide range of threats. Some, such as nuclear war, are of human origin. Others, such as volcano eruptions, are not. The relative importance of these two categories of risk is a matter of ongoing debate. This paper argues that prior theoretical research has understated the risk from natural threats. It presents analysis of six natural global catastrophic risks, finding potential for several to pose a high ongoing risk to humanity.

Prior research has posed a …

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Doing Better on Climate Change

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This article, published in the Effective Altruism Forum, presents a wide-ranging discussion of how to factor climate change into efforts to make the world a better place. The article relates climate change to other global catastrophic risks and related issues. It emphasizes the value of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and explains which activities are effective at reducing emissions.

The article begins as follows:

Summary: How to factor climate change into our efforts to make the world a better place. For …

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Nonhuman Value: A Survey of the Intrinsic Valuation of Natural and Artificial Nonhuman Entities

View the paper “Nonhuman Value: A Survey of the Intrinsic Valuation of Natural and Artificial Nonhuman Entities”

The concept of global catastrophic
risk is customarily defined in human terms. Details vary, but a global
catastrophe is almost always regarded as something bad that happens to
humans. However, in moral philosophy, it is often considered that things
that happen to nonhumans can also be bad—and likewise for good things. In some
circumstances, whether and how nonhumans are valued may be the difference
between extremely good or catastrophically bad outcomes for nonhumans. This
raises the …

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Book Review: The Precipice

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Book review of The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, by Toby Ord, Hachette Books, 2020.

The new book The Precipice by Toby Ord provides a wide-ranging survey of topics related to global catastrophic risk. Compared to other books on global catastrophic risk, The Precipice stands out for its depth of discussion, its quality of scholarship, and its readability. However, the book errs in its emphasis on only the most extreme global catastrophe scenarios, its strong belief in the resilience of civilization, and …

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Pandemic Refuges: Lessons from Two Years of COVID-19

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Refuges have been proposed as a means of ensuring that at least some people survive a global catastrophe. While it would be better to avoid the catastrophe in the first place, if a catastrophe is to occur, a refuge could be a real difference-maker in terms of the long-term effects on human civilization. Prior refuges research emphasizes highly isolated locations such as underground, underwater, or in outer space. These exotic concepts may seem far removed …

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From AI for People to AI for the World and the Universe

View the paper “From AI for People to AI for the World and the Universe”

Work on the ethics of artificial intelligence often focuses on the value of AI to human populations. This is seen, for example, in initiatives on AI for People. These initiatives do well to identify some important AI ethics issues, but they fall short by neglecting the ethical importance of nonhumans. This short paper calls for AI ethics to better account for nonhumans, such as by giving initiatives names like “AI for …

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