Publications

Publications listed here have at least one GCRI affiliate as a co-author, were written at least in part while that person was with GCRI, and are in some way related to GCR. The views expressed in these publications are those of the authors alone and not of the GCRI organization.

Jump to: Academic Books & Collections * Working Papers * Academic Articles * Academic Reviews, Responses, & Introductions * Popular Articles

Academic Books & Collections

Seth D. Baum and Bruce E. Tonn (Editors), 2015. Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity [Special issue]. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 1-96.

Denkenberger, David and Joshua Pearce, 2014. Feeding Everyone No Matter What: Managing Food Security After Global Catastrophe. Waltham, MA: Academic Press, ISBN 9780128044476.

Working Papers

None at this time.

Academic Articles

Baum, Seth D. Social choice ethics in artificial intelligence. AI & Society, forthcoming, DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0760-1.

Baum, Seth D. Reconciliation between factions focused on near-term and long-term artificial intelligence. AI & Society, forthcoming, DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0734-3.

Baum, Seth D. and Anthony M. Barrett, 2018. Global catastrophes: The most extreme risks. In Vicki Bier (editor), Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184.

Baum, Seth D. and Anthony M. Barrett, 2017. Towards an integrated assessment of global catastrophic risk. In B.J. Garrick (editor), Catastrophic and Existential Risk: Proceedings of the First Colloquium, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles.

Baum, Seth D., 2017. On the promotion of safe and socially beneficial artificial intelligence. AI & Society, vol. 32, no. 4 (November), pages 543-551, DOI 10.1007/s00146-016-0677-0. Originally published as Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 16-1.

Barrett, Anthony, 2017. Value of GCR information: Cost effectiveness-based approach for global catastrophic risk (GCR) reduction. Decision Analysis, vol. 14, no. 3 (September), in press.

Barrett, Anthony M. and Seth D. Baum, 2017. Risk analysis and risk management for the artificial superintelligence research and development process. In Victor Callaghan, James Miller, Roman Yampolskiy, and Stuart Armstrong (editors), The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey. Berlin: Springer, pages 127-140.

Denkenberger, David C., D. Dorothea Cole, Mohamed Abdelkhaliq, Michael Griswold, Allen B. Hundley, and Joshua M. Pearce, 2017. Feeding everyone if the sun is obscured and industry is disabled. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 21, pages 284–290. DOI 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.12.018.

Barrett, Anthony M. and Seth D. Baum, 2017. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, vol. 29, no. 2, pages 397-414, DOI 10.1080/0952813X.2016.1186228.

Denkenberger, David C. and Joshua M. Pearce, 2016. Cost-effectiveness of interventions for alternate food to address agricultural catastrophes globally. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, vol. 7, no. 3, pages 205-215, DOI 10.1007/s13753-016-0097-2.

Baum, Seth D., 2016 The ethics of outer space: A consequentialist perspective. In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.

Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, and Joshua M. Pearce, 2016. Alternative foods as a solution to to global food supply catastrophes. Solutions, vol. 7, no. 4, pages 31-35.

Barrett, Anthony, 2016. False alarms, true dangers? Current and future risks of inadvertent U.S.-Russian nuclear war. RAND Corporation, document PE-191-TSF, DOI 10.7249/PE191.

Baum, Seth D., 2015. The far future argument for confronting catastrophic threats to humanity: Practical significance and alternatives. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 86-96, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.001.

Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2015. Should we geoengineer larger ice caps? Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 80-85, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.002.

Baum, Seth D., 2015. Confronting the threat of nuclear winter. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 69-79, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.004.

Denkenberger, David C. and Joshua M. Pearce, 2015. Feeding everyone: Solving the food crisis in event of global catastrophes that kill crops or obscure the sun. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 57-68, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2014.11.008.

Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, and Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2015. Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 45-56, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.009.

Boddie, Crystal, Matthew Watson, Gary Ackerman, and Gigi Kwik Gronvall, 2015. Assessing the bioweapons threat. Science, vol. 349, no. 6250 (21 August), pages 792-793. DOI 10.1126/science.aab0713.

Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce, Alan Robock, and Richelle Winkler, 2015. Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment, Systems, and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 301-313. DOI 10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2.

Baum, Seth D., 2015. Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats. Environment, Systems, and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 229-236. DOI 10.1007/s10669-015-9551-8.

Baum, Seth D., 2015. Winter-safe deterrence: The risk of nuclear winter and its challenge to deterrence. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 1 (April), pages 123-148, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1012346.

Baum, Seth D., 2014. The great downside dilemma for risky emerging technologies. Physica Scripta, vol. 89, no. 12 (December), article 128004, DOI 10.1088/0031-8949/89/12/128004.

Baum, Seth D. and Itsuki C. Handoh, 2014. Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms. Ecological Economics, vol. 107 (November), pages 13-21, DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.024.

Wilson, Grant S., 2014. Deepwater Horizon and the Law of the Sea: Was the cure worse than the disease? Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, vol. 41, no. 1, pages 63-131.

Baum, Seth and Grant Wilson, 2013. The ethics of global catastrophic risk from dual-use bioengineering. Ethics in Biology, Engineering and Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72, DOI 10.1615/EthicsBiologyEngMed.2013007629.

Wilson, Grant S., 2013. Minimizing global catastrophic and existential risks from emerging technologies through international law. Virginia Environmental Law Journal, vol. 31, no. 2, pages 307-364.

Maher, Tim, 2013. Ambient Intelligence and Ambient Persuasive Technology: Sustainability and Threats to Autonomy. Master of Science Thesis, Center for Environmental Policy, Bard College.

Barrett, Anthony M., Seth D. Baum, and Kelly R. Hostetler, 2013. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia. Science and Global Security, vol. 21, no. 2, pages 106-133, DOI 10.1080/08929882.2013.798984.

Maher, Timothy M. Jr. and Seth D. Baum, 2013. Adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. Sustainability, vol. 5, no. 4 (April), pages 1461-1479, DOI 10.3390/su5041461.

Baum, Seth D., Timothy M. Maher, Jr., and Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2013. Double catastrophe: Intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse. Environment, Systems and Decisions, vol. 33, no. 1 (March), pages 168-180, DOI 10.1007/s10669-012-9429-y.

Haqq-Misra, Jacob, Michael W. Busch, Sanjoy M. Som, and Seth D. Baum, 2013. The benefits and harms of transmitting into space. Space Policy, vol. 29, no. 1 (February), pages 40-48, DOI 10.1016/j.spacepol.2012.11.006.

Baum, Seth D., 2013. Teaching astrobiology in a sustainability course. Journal of Sustainability Education, February issue (online).

Haqq-Misra, Jacob, 2012. An ecological compass for planetary engineering. Astrobiology, vol. 12, no. 10 (October), pages 985-997, DOI 10.1089/ast.2011.0796.

Academic Reviews, Responses, & Introductions

Baum, Seth D. Book review: The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life When Robots Rule the Earth. Futures, forthcoming, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.005.

Haqq-Misra, Jacob. Book review: Here Be Dragons: Science, Technology and the Future of Humanity. Law, Innovation and Technology, forthcoming, DOI 10.1080/17579961.2016.1250381.

Baum, Seth D. and Bruce E. Tonn, 2015. Introduction: Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 1-3, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.004.

Baum, Seth D., 2015. Winter-safe deterrence as a practical contribution to reducing nuclear winter risk: A reply. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1054101.

Baum, Seth D., 2014. Film review: Snowpiercer. Journal of Sustainability Education, vol. 7, December issue (online).

Baum, Seth D., 2014. Book review: Only One Chance: How Environmental Pollution Impairs Brain Development – and How to Protect the Brains of the Next Generation. Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 42 (October), pages 197-199, DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.07.001.

Baum, Seth D., 2014. Film review: Transcendence. Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 24, no. 2 (September), pages 79-84.

Popular Articles

Baum, Seth, 2016. Space colonization and the meaning of life. Nautilus, December.

Baum, Seth, 2016. What Trump means for global catastrophic risk. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 December.

Baum, Seth, 2016. Should we let uploaded brains take over the world?. Scientific American Blogs, 18 October.

Baum, Seth, 2016. Tackling near and far AI threats at once. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 6 October.

Butler, Kaitlin and Patrick Robbins, 2016. Fever pitch: This crucial moment in the fight to stop fossil fuel infrastructure. The Leap, 11 April.

Butler, Kaitlin, 2015. Utah’s hopes for oil shale bonanza has a public relations problem, industry symposium hears. DeSmogBlog, 25 October.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Japan should restart more nuclear power plants. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 20 October.

White, Trevor, 2015. A convention to police artificial intelligence. Cornell Daily Sun, 8 October.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Antinuclear Austria should lead the way on nuclear power. Scientific American Blogs, 29 September.

Baum, Seth, 2015. A picture’s power to prevent. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5 August.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Breaking down the risk of nuclear deterrence failure. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 July.

Baum, Seth and Trevor White, 2015. When robots kill. The Guardian Political Science blog, 23 June.

Umbrello, Steven, 2015. The Atlas burden: The cost of America’s nuclear arsenal. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 18 June.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Should nuclear devices be used to stop asteroids?. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 17 June.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Is stratospheric geoengineering worth the risk?. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5 June.

Baum, Seth, 2015. The risk of nuclear winter. Public Interest Reports, vol. 68, no. 2.

Baum, Seth, 2015. On winter-safe deterrence and interdisciplinary research. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2 April. Part of a roundtable discussion The winter-safe deterrence debate.

Baum, Seth, 2015. On winter-safe deterrence and biological weapons. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 20 March. Part of a roundtable discussion The winter-safe deterrence debate.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Getting smart about global catastrophes. Medium special section 7 Days of Genius, 16 March.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Deterrence, without nuclear winter. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 March.

Baum, Seth, 2015. What are the best ways to prevent global catastrophe?. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 26 February.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Stopping killer robots and other future threats. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 22 February.

Denkenberger, David, 2015. Feeding everyone no matter what. Future of Life Institute blog, 8 February.

Denkenberger, David, 2015. Feeding everyone. Talon (Aztec, NM), vol. 23, no. 3, page 9, 30 January.

Baum, Seth, 2015. Support the Austria Pledge. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 January.

Pearce, Joshua M. and David D. Denkenberger, 2014. 10 ways to feed ourselves after a global agricultural collapse. Elsevier Connect, 9 December.

Pearce, Joshua M. and David D. Denkenberger, 2014. Life after global catastrophe: How do we feed everyone? Elsevier SciTechConnect. 24 November.

Baum, Seth, 2014. Nuclear war, the black swan we can never see. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 21 November.

Baum, Seth, 2014. The lesson of Lake Toba. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 21 October.

Baum, Seth, 2014. Planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 October.

Haqq-Misra, Jacob, 2014. Building sanctuaries to increase civilization’s resilience. Earth, vol. 59, no. 10 (September), pages 10-11.

Haqq-Misra, Jacob, 2014. Preparing for the death of Earth. Earth, vol. 59, no. 6 (May), pages 8-9.

de Neufville, Robert, 2014. One cannot live in the cradle forever. FQXi Essay Contest, Spring.

Baum, Seth, 2014. Best and worst case scenarios for Ukraine crisis: World peace and nuclear war. Huffington Post, 7 March.

de Neufville, Robert, 2014. What’s at stake for the world in Ukraine. Anthropocene blog, 2 March. Reprinted in the Project on Nuclear Issues.

Baum, Seth, 2013. Our Final Invention: Is AI the defining issue for humanity? Scientific American Blogs, 11 October. Reprinted in Yahoo News, Huffington Post, and Medium.

Baum, Seth, 2013. Taming the gigaton gorilla: Using Syria diplomacy to help avoid U.S.-Russia nuclear war. The Huffington Post, 15 September. Reprinted in Medium.

de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The Sentinel Mission, Anthropocene blog, 17 August.

de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The end of scarcity. Anthropocene blog, 11 June.

Baum, Seth, 2013. Making the universe a better place. Current Exchange/Technophilic Magazine, Spring, pages 22-23.

de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The sixth extinction (review of Scatter, Adapt, and Remember by Annalee Newitz). Anthropocene blog, 27 May.

Baum, Seth and Grant Wilson, 2013. How to create an international treaty for emerging technologies. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 February.

Baum, Seth, 2013. When global catastrophes collide: The climate engineering double catastrophe. Scientific American Blogs, 6 February. Reprinted in Yahoo News and The Huffington Post.

Baum, Seth, 2013. Seven reasons for integrated emerging technologies governance. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 23 January.

de Neufville, Robert, 2013. Have we reached the limits to growth? Anthropocene blog, 14 January.

Wilson, Grant, 2012. Emerging technologies: Should they be internationally regulated?. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 December.

Baum, Seth, 2012. Hurricane Sandy hints at the perils of global catastrophe. Scientific American Blogs, 6 November. Reprinted in Yahoo News and The Huffington Post.

Haqq-Misra, Jacob, 2012. It’s a question of ethics: Should we study geoengineering? Earth, vol. 57, no. 10 (October), page 8.

Baum, Seth, 2012. Anticipating catastrophe. FutureChallenges, 26 September.

Baum, Seth, 2012. Earth Day, conspiracy and world government. FutureChallenges, 23 April. Reprinted in The Huffington Post.

Baum, Seth, 2012. Global disaster recovery. FutureChallenges, 17 April.