On December 17 and 21 of 2021, Executive Director Seth Baum delivered a remote talk called The challenges of addressing rare events and how to overcome them at the workshop Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance, hosted by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The proceedings from the workshop can now be found online, and Baum’s remarks from the workshop can be found in Chapter 8, Active Prevention and Deterrence. A summary of his presentation is as follows:

Classic expected utility theory suggests that …