A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War

Post Date March 08, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War”

The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total probability of nuclear war. The model is based on 14 interrelated scenarios for how nuclear war can break out, covering perhaps the entire range of nuclear war scenarios. Scenarios vary based on factors including whether a state intends to make a first strike attack, whether …

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Katherine Thompson Gives GCRI Public Lecture On Psychology Of Uncertainty

Post Date December 05, 2012
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Category online lectures, psychology & communications, uncertainty

In GCRI’s first public lecture (26 November 2012), Katherine Thompson spoke on the psychology of uncertainty in a talk titled “What We Think About When We Think About Probability: How Our Experience Affects the Way We Perceive the Risk of Rare Events”. Katherine is a PhD student in Psychology at Columbia University and researcher with Columbia’s Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, a group I’m also affiliated with. She’s been working on, among other things, the psychology of disaster preparedness [1].

Global catastrophic risk is fundamentally …

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