February Newsletter: Nuclear War Risk Analysis

Post Date February 28, 2019
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends, In order to most effectively reduce the risk of global catastrophe, it is often essential to have a quantitative understanding of the risk. It is particularly essential when we are faced with decisions that involve tradeoffs between different risks and decisions that require prioritizing among multiple risks. For this reason, GCRI has long been at the forefront of the risk and decision analysis of global catastrophic risk. This month, we announce a new paper, “Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War”. This paper summarizes the …

Read More »

May Newsletter: Molecular Nanotechnology

Post Date May 22, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

It has been a productive month for GCRI, with new papers by several of our affiliates. Here, I would like to highlight one by Steven Umbrello and myself, on the topic of molecular nanotechnology, also known as atomically precise manufacturing (APM).

At present, APM exists only in a crude form, such as the work recognized by the 2016 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. However, it may be able to revolutionize manufacturing, making it inexpensive and easy to produce a wide range of goods, resulting in what …

Read More »

April Newsletter: Nuclear War Impacts

Post Date April 24, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

This month we are announcing a new paper, “A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War”, co-authored by Tony Barrett and myself. The paper presents a detailed and comprehensive accounting of the many ways that nuclear war can harm human beings and human society. It is a counterpart to the paper we announced last month, “A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War”.

The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of impacts of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing …

Read More »

A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War

Post Date April 03, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War”

The total impact of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model includes physical, infrastructural, and social impacts as they affect human lives. The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human …

Read More »

March Newsletter: Nuclear War Probability

Post Date March 15, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

This month we are announcing a new paper, “A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War”, co-authored by Robert de Neufville, Tony Barrett, and myself. The paper presents the most detailed accounting of the probability of nuclear war yet available.

The core of the paper is a model covering 14 scenarios for how nuclear war could occur. In 6 scenarios, a state intentionally starts nuclear war. In the other 8, a state mistakenly believes it is under nuclear attack by another state and starts nuclear …

Read More »

A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War

Post Date March 08, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War”

The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total probability of nuclear war. The model is based on 14 interrelated scenarios for how nuclear war can break out, covering perhaps the entire range of nuclear war scenarios. Scenarios vary based on factors including whether a state intends to make a first strike attack, whether …

Read More »

July Newsletter: Summer Talks and Presentations

Post Date July 07, 2017
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Integrated Assessment

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum gave a talk on “Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk and Artificial Intelligence” at the Cambridge University Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) on June 28. Dr. Baum will also participate in a Tech2025 workshop on future AI risk on July 11 in New York City.

GCRI Director of Research Tony Barrett gave a talk on integrated assessment, nuclear war, AI, and risk reduction opportunities at an Effective Altruism DC event on global catastrophic risks on June 17.

Artificial Intelligence

GCRI Associate …

Read More »

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: Trump and Global Catastrophic Risk

Post Date December 19, 2016
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category articles

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum has a new article in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on what Donald Trump’s election means for global catastrophic risk, which has been covered in Quartz and Elite Daily. Baum writes that the fact that Trump will have the authority to launch nuclear weapons should particularly concern us, given his tendency to behave erratically, Trump’s election also has implications for the prospect of conflict with Russia and China, the stability of the global world order, the survival of democracy in the US, and our …

Read More »

GCR News Summary August/September 2016

Post Date October 04, 2016
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category news summary

EU Parliament in Strasbourg image courtesy of  David Iliff under a CC-BY-SA 3.0 license

By Matthijs Maas

In the early hours of September 9, North Korea carried out its fifth nuclear test, its biggest ever at an estimated 10 kilotons. The test, which was first detected as a magnitude 5.3-earthquake, was condemned by the UN Security Council, as well as leaders from across the world. In a statement, North Korea said it had tested a “nuclear warhead… standardized to be able to be mounted on strategic ballistic rockets”. …

Read More »

GCR News Summary May 2016

Post Date June 01, 2016
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category news summary

President Obama and Prime Minister Abe at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial image courtesy of Pete Souza/The White House

President Obama became the first sitting US president to visit Hiroshima, just a little more than one month after Secretary of State John Kerry became the highest ranking US official to visit the city where the US detonated a nuclear weapon at the end of World War II. Obama laid a wreath at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial, but did not apologize for the use of nuclear weapons against Japan. …

Read More »
« Older Entries
Newer Entries »