GCRI Media Engagement On The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Post Date December 16, 2022
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Category outreach

This past fall, GCRI conducted a stretch of media outreach regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It focused on the risk of the invasion escalating to nuclear war. It drew on GCRI’s research on nuclear war, especially the publication A model for the probability of nuclear war. This post provides a summary of this outreach work.

The work began with a series of posts by Seth Baum on Twitter, mainly in the form of extended threads. The posts are compiled in a thread of …

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November Newsletter: Giving Tuesday

Post Date November 22, 2022
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Dear friends,

GCRI would like to take the time to thank you for your continued support throughout 2022. Because of your help, we have been able to accomplish much throughout the year including publishing research, hosting another successful Advising and Collaboration Program, and much more (you’ll find our summary of 2022 accomplishments in the upcoming December newsletter). Whether you subscribe to our newsletter, participate in our annual Advising and Collaboration Program, or have the means to donate, we are grateful for your generosity. To continue supporting …

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Assessing Natural Global Catastrophic Risks

Post Date October 14, 2022
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Category publications

View the paper “Assessing Natural Global Catastrophic Risks”

Humanity today faces a wide range of threats. Some, such as nuclear war, are of human origin. Others, such as volcano eruptions, are not. The relative importance of these two categories of risk is a matter of ongoing debate. This paper argues that prior theoretical research has understated the risk from natural threats. It presents analysis of six natural global catastrophic risks, finding potential for several to pose a high ongoing risk to humanity.

Prior research has posed a …

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March Newsletter: Implications of the War in Ukraine

Post Date March 28, 2022
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Category ethics, newsletter, nuclear war, policy

Dear friends,The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already proving to be an event of profound importance for global catastrophic risk. As detailed in the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the war’s implications for nuclear war risk are especially strong, but it also has implications for other risks including climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. These changes are coming from the war itself and from the accompanying shifts in global politics. We at GCRI hope that the war can reach a prompt and peaceful …

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Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category nuclear war

View the article “Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”.

This article, published in the Effective Altruism Forum, presents analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine written for a global catastrophic risk audience. The article discusses nuclear war risk, the changing geopolitical landscape, and recommendations for personal preparedness and philanthropy. It also describes the author’s own activities in addressing the immediate risk and presents a compilation of resources for learning more about the war.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The …

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How to Evaluate the Risk of Nuclear War

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category media coverage, nuclear war

View the article “How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war”.

This article, published in BBC Future, discusses the quantitative analysis of nuclear war risk. It is written in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and also discusses more general analytical issues, such as found in GCRI’s nuclear war research.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The article begins as follows:

One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see the Sun was shining. My neighbourhood …

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GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 03, 2022
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Category news coverage, news summary, nuclear war, statement

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is already shaping up to be an event of historic proportions. This includes, but is certainly not limited to, its implications for global catastrophic risk. We at GCRI are monitoring the unfolding events with great concern. While it is always important to understand all parties’ perspectives on a conflict, in this case we find ourselves strongly condemning the actions of the Russian government. Our hearts go out to the many people in Ukraine who have been tragically affected by …

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February Newsletter: Ukraine & Pluralism

Post Date February 28, 2022
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Category ethics, newsletter, nuclear war

Dear friends,

We at GCRI are watching the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine with great concern. In addition to the grave harm being inflicted on the Ukrainian people, this invasion also constitutes a large escalation of tensions between Russia and the West and a shooting war adjacent to several NATO countries. In our judgment, this increases the risk of US-Russia or NATO-Russia nuclear war and accompanying nuclear winter. Our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine who are enduring this tragic violence. For the sake …

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September Newsletter: Planetary Defense & Violent Conflict

Post Date September 29, 2020
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Dear friends,

A primary reason GCRI works across the range of global catastrophic risks is to address the many important points of intersection between the risks. These points of intersection often are neglected by communities that focus on one risk at a time.

This month, we announce a paper on the intersection of planetary defense and violent conflict, especially nuclear war. Planetary defense refers to protection against asteroids, comets, and meteors. One point of intersection is the proposed use of nuclear explosives to target Earthbound asteroids …

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July Newsletter: Asteroid-Nuclear Risk Analysis

Post Date July 16, 2019
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Category newsletter

Dear friends,

One reason it is important to analyze the global catastrophic risks quantitatively is that some decisions involve tradeoffs between them. An action may reduce one risk while increasing another. It’s important to know whether the decrease in the one risk is large enough to offset the increase in the other.

This month, we announce a new paper that presents a detailed analysis of one such decision: the use of nuclear explosives to deflect Earthbound asteroids away. Nuclear deflection is an option under active consideration by …

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