GCR News Summary January 2014

President Obama delivering the 2014 State of the Union address image courtesy of The White House/Pete Souza

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decided to leave the small hand of its symbolic “Doomsday Clock” at five minutes to midnight. The amount of time left until midnight represents how close we are to global disaster. The clock’s hands were set at two minutes to midnight at the height of the Cold War in the 1950s. In an open letter to the members of …

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GCR News Summary December 2013

Mammoth Hot Springs image courtesy of Brocken Inaglory under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license

Russian President Vladimir Putin told senior Russian officials that long-range conventional high- precision weapons could provide an alternative to nuclear deterrence. Long-range conventional weapons give Russia a conventional means of striking discrete targets quickly anywhere in the world. But conventional ballistic missiles could carry the same danger of escalation as nuclear weapons, since they are difficult to distinguish from nuclear weapons once they have been launched. …

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GCR News Summary September 2013

The Earth and the Moon as seen from Voyager 1 image courtesy of NASA.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concluded after reviewing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies that there’s at least a 95% chance that global warming is primarily caused by human activities. The IPCC said in its 2007 report that there was a 90% chance global warming was caused by humans, but alternate explanations for climate change have been ruled out since then. The IPCC found that the global …

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Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia

View the paper “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia”

Inadvertent nuclear war as defined in this paper occurs when one nation mistakenly concludes that it is under attack and launches nuclear weapons in what it believes to be a counterattack. A US-Russia nuclear war would be a major global catastrophe since these countries still possess thousands of nuclear weapons. Despite the end of the Cold War, the risk remains. This paper develops a detailed mathematical “fault tree” …

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GCR News Summary April 2013

You can help us compile future news posts by putting any GCR news you see in the comment thread of this blog post, or send it via email to Grant Wilson (grant [at] gcrinstitute.org).

So far 115 people have been diagnosed with a strain of bird flu known as H7N9 that was previously unknown in humans. Twenty-three of the people known to have contracted the disease have already died. The discovery of a 4-year-old boy who has the virus but who has no apparent …

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New Paper: Inadvertent Nuclear War

GCRI has another new academic paper out. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia, by Tony Barrett, Seth Baum, and Kelly Hostetler, has been accepted for publication in Science and Global Security.

The paper discusses the possibility of US-Russia nuclear war occurring when one country mistakenly concludes that a false alarm is real and launches nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack. Inadvertent US-Russia nuclear war has come close to happening before, even since the end …

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Meet The Team Tuesdays: Tony Barrett

This post is part of a weekly series introducing GCRI’s members.

Tony and I met at the 2010 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting. I was co-chair with Vanessa Schweizer of two sessions on global catastrophic risk. Vanessa and Tony had attended Carnegie Mellon’s Engineering & Public Policy PhD program together. Tony and I both wanted to focus our careers on GCR, and started thinking about the most effective ways of doing this. We benchmarked many other organizations and concluded that there was a need for …

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Tony Barrett Gives CSIS Practice Talk On Inadvertent Nuclear War To GCRI Nuclear War Group

On Thursday 11 October 2012,* GCRI hosted the second of a series of discussions among a group of nuclear war scholars. The discussion centered around a practice talk that Tony Barrett gave for an upcoming conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
* We apologize for the delays in getting this post online.

Meeting participants included Martin Hellman of Stanford and Seth Baum, Tony Barrett, and Jacob Haqq-Misra, all of GCRI.

Barrett’s talk, Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War between the United …

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