August Newsletter: Quantifying Probability

Post Date August 31, 2020
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Dear friends,

One of the great features of being part of a wider community of scholars and professionals working on global catastrophic risk is the chance to learn from and build on work that other groups are doing. This month, we announce a paper of mine that builds on an excellent recent paper by Simon Beard, Thomas Rowe, James Fox. The Beard et al. paper surveys the methods used to quantify the probability of existential catastrophe (which is roughly synonymous with global catastrophe).

My paper comments …

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Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.

Post Date August 10, 2020
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View the paper “Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.”

A major challenge for work on global catastrophic risk and existential risk is that the risks are very difficult to quantify. Global catastrophes rarely occur, and the most severe ones have never happened before, so the risk cannot be quantified using past event data. An excellent recent article by Simon Beard, Thomas Rowe, and James Fox surveys ten methods used in prior research on quantifying the probability of existential catastrophe. My new paper expands on the …

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Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity

Post Date September 01, 2015
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Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity is a special issue of the journal Futures co-edited by Bruce Tonn and myself. It contains 11 original articles discussing a range of issues on catastrophic threats. It is part of ongoing attention to catastrophic threats in Futures.

Relative to prior collections, such as the 2008 book Global Catastrophic Risks and the 2009 special issue of Futures Human Extinction, this special issue aims to contribute more of a practical focus to the study of catastrophic threats to humanity, in order to better guide humanity’s …

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