Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Post Date July 03, 2024
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Category artificial intelligence, risk analysis

View the paper “Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models”

Recent large language models (LLMs) have shown some impressive capabilities, but this has raised concerns about their potential to cause harm. Once concern is that LLMs could take over the world and cause catastrophic harm, potentially even killing everyone on the planet. However, this concern has been questioned and hotly debated. Therefore, this paper presents a careful analysis of LLM takeover catastrophe risk.

Concern about LLM takeover is noteworthy across the entire history of …

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Accounting for Violent Conflict Risk in Planetary Defense Decisions

Post Date September 09, 2020
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Category asteroids, publications, risk analysis

View the paper “Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions”

Planetary defense is the defense of planet Earth against collisions with near-Earth objects (NEOs), which include asteroids, comets and meteoroids. A central objective of planetary defense is to reduce risks to Earth and its inhabitants. Whereas planetary defense is mainly focused on risks from NEO, this paper argues that planetary defense decisions should also account for other risks, especially risks from violent conflict. The paper is based on a talk I gave at the 2019 Planetary …

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The Challenge of Analyzing Global Catastrophic Risks

Post Date July 29, 2019
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Category announcement, articles, risk analysis

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The quantification of global catastrophic risks in terms of their probabilities and severities is difficult, but it is important for many decisions. Likewise, the fields of risk and decision analysis have much to offer the study of global catastrophic risk. This short paper summarizes the challenge of quantitatively analyzing global catastrophic risks. I was invited by the Decision Analysis Society to write this for their publication Decision Analysis Today.

As the paper explains, the quantification of global …

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GCRI Session at the 2019 Society for Risk Analysis Meeting

Post Date July 22, 2019
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Category announcement, risk analysis

GCRI is hosting a session on Global Catastrophic Risks at the 2019 meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in Arlington, VA. SRA is the leading professional society for all types of risk. SRA brings together researchers from many disciplines as well as professionals from government, industry, nonprofits, and other sectors.

GCRI Director of Research Tony Barrett is chairing the session. It will feature talks by GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum, GCRI Special Advisor for Government Affairs Jared Brown, GCRI Senior Advisor Gary Ackerman, University …

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Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Post Date June 17, 2019
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection”

If an asteroid is found to be on collision course with Earth, it may be possible to deflect it away. One way of deflecting asteroids would be to use nuclear explosives. A nuclear deflection program may reduce the risk of an asteroid collision, but it might also inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war or other violent conflict. This paper analyzes this potential tradeoff and evaluates its policy implications. The paper is published in …

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Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

Post Date February 15, 2019
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Category articles, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War”

Would the world be safer with or without nuclear weapons? On one hand, nuclear weapons may increase the severity of war due to their extreme explosive power. On the other hand, they may decrease the frequency of major wars by strengthening deterrence. Is the decrease in frequency enough to offset the increase in severity? (This tradeoff is illustrated in the graphic above.) This is a vital policy question for which risk analysis has …

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The Role of Risk and Decision Analysis in Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction

Post Date November 26, 2018
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Category discussion, risk analysis

This post provides some general discussion on how we at GCRI currently view risk and decision analysis. It has long been a major theme for our work, but it is somewhat controversial in our own minds. This post shares our current thinking in order to prompt wider discussion of these important but challenging research tools.

GCRI is a leader in the use of risk and decision analysis to understand global catastrophic risk. Risk analysis is the process of characterizing and perhaps quantifying the probabilities and severities …

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Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Post Date August 17, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, risk analysis

View the paper “Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold”

Asteroid collision is probably the most well-understood global catastrophic risk. This paper shows that it’s not so well understood after all, due to uncertainty in the human consequences. This finding matters both for asteroid risk and for the wider study of global catastrophic risk. If asteroid risk is not well understood, then neither are other risks such as nuclear war and pandemics.

In addition to our understanding of the risks, two other …

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Meet The Team Tuesdays: Jianhua Xu

Post Date November 06, 2012
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Category meet the team Tuesdays, risk analysis

This post is part of a weekly series introducing GCRI’s members.

Global catastrophic risk is an inherently global issue. Likewise the study and response to GCR benefits from global collaboration. I was thus delighted when Jianhua expressed interest. Jianhua is based in Beijing, but we met in Sydney, at the 2012 World Congress on Risk, sponsored by the Society for Risk Analysis. Jianhua attended the session on global catastrophic risk I chaired and approached me afterwards. Her research is excellent, spanning several aspects of risk analysis. …

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