Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

Post Date April 01, 2013
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Category post-catastrophe, publications

View the paper “Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe” 

Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics, and ecological collapse threaten the long-term sustainability of human civilization. A lot of research has studied the nature of global catastrophes and how to prevent them. The research neglects what happens to any human survivors of the catastrophe. This paper analyzes the possibility that survivors may adapt to post-catastrophe conditions, recover civilization and perhaps even go on to colonize space. The paper considers both the importance of adaptation/recovery and …

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New Paper: Global Catastrophe Adaptation and Recovery

Post Date March 28, 2013
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GCRI has a new academic paper out. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, by Tim Maher and Seth Baum, has been accepted for publication in Sustainability. (Click here for a nontechnical summary.) This paper analyzes the possibility that survivors may adapt to post-catastrophe conditions, recover civilization, and perhaps even go on to colonize space. The paper considers both the importance of adaptation/recovery and how adaptation/recovery may proceed.

Adaptation and recovery from global catastrophe could be a crucial feature in the fate of human civilization in …

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Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse

Post Date March 05, 2013
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To date, most research on global catastrophes analyzes one risk at a time. A better approach uses systems analysis to capture the many important interactions between risks. This paper analyzes a global catastrophe scenario involving climate change, geoengineering, and another catastrophe. We call the scenario “double catastrophe”. 

Climate change and stratospheric geoengineering.The rising temperatures of global climate change pose great risks to humanity and ecosystems. Climate change can be slowed by reducing emissions of greenhouse …

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New IEET Article On International Treaties For Emerging Technologies

Post Date March 02, 2013
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Category emerging technologies, law & policy, publications

Quick FYI – Grant Wilson and I have a new article up at IEET: How to create an international treaty for emerging technologies. The article discusses several options for the institutions that can support such a treaty, mainly institutions within the United Nations. The article was produced for our crowdfunding campaign Preventing Technological Disaster Through International Treaties. We had hoped to raise $8000 and write a full academic journal article, but we only raised $300, so we wrote this instead. I still think it provides …

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The Benefits and Harm of Transmitting Into Space

Post Date February 12, 2013
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View the paper “The Benefits and Harm of Transmitting Into Space”

Deliberate and unintended radio transmissions from Earth propagate into space. Deliberate transmissions, such as the Arecibo message pictured above, are intended as attempts to send messages to potential extraterrestrial watchers (METI). Unintended radio leakage includes television and radio broadcasts, cell phone networks, and high-power military and astronomical radars. This radiation gives evidence of our technological civilization to any extraterrestrial watchers. This paper asks: do radio transmissions pose a risk and should they continue? The value …

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New Paper: Inadvertent Nuclear War

Post Date January 09, 2013
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Category nuclear war, publications

GCRI has another new academic paper out. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia, by Tony Barrett, Seth Baum, and Kelly Hostetler, has been accepted for publication in Science and Global Security.

The paper discusses the possibility of US-Russia nuclear war occurring when one country mistakenly concludes that a false alarm is real and launches nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack. Inadvertent US-Russia nuclear war has come close to happening before, even since the end …

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New Paper: Geoengineering Double Catastrophe

Post Date January 04, 2013
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Category emerging technologies, environmental change, publications

GCRI has a new academic paper out. Double catastrophe: Intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse, by Seth Baum, Timothy Maher, and Jacob Haqq-Misra, has been accepted for publication in Environment, Systems and Decisions.

The paper discusses a global catastrophe scenario involving climate change, geoengineering, and a separate catastrophe. In the scenario, stratospheric geoengineering is conducted to cool the warming temperatures associated with climate change. Then, an initial catastrophe separate from climate change prevents humanity from continuing the geoengineering, causing a rapid temperature increase. The initial …

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New Publication: Teaching Astrobiology In A Sustainability Course, By Seth Baum

Post Date December 03, 2012
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GCRI now has its second academic publication: Teaching astrobiology in a sustainability course by Seth Baum (i.e. me, your humble GCRI blogger).

This paper is based on Geog 30, an introductory undergraduate sustainability course I taught at Penn State. The basic idea is that while sustainability education usually focuses on sustainability on Earth, much can be learned from considering life in the universe. (Astrobiology is the study of life in the universe.) This includes a direct connection to GCR: In order to sustain Earth-originating life beyond …

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GCRI’s First Publication, On Emerging Technologies And International Law, By Grant Wilson

Post Date November 27, 2012
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Category emerging technologies, law & policy, publications

As part of its research, GCRI is working on several research papers for peer-reviewed publication. The first of these papers has now been accepted, and so we are adding a publications page to our website. We will be adding more publications to this page as they become available.

The first paper, by Grant Wilson, is titled “Minimizing global catastrophic and existential risks from emerging technologies through international law“. The paper has been accepted at Virginia Environmental Law Journal and can be downloaded from the Social Science …

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