October Newsletter: The Superintelligence Debate

Post Date October 02, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category artificial intelligence, newsletter

Dear friends,

When I look at debates about risks from artificial intelligence, I see a lot of parallels with debates over global warming. Both involve global catastrophic risks that are, to a large extent, driven by highly profitable industries. Indeed, today most of the largest corporations in the world are in either the computer technology or fossil fuel industries.

One key difference is that whereas global warming debates have been studied in great detail by many talented researchers, AI debates have barely been studied at all. As …

Read More »

Countering Superintelligence Misinformation

Post Date October 01, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category articles, artificial intelligence, psychology & communications

View the paper “Countering Superintelligence Misinformation”

In any public issue, having the right information can help us make the right decisions. This holds in particular for high-stakes issues like the global catastrophic risks. Unfortunately, sometimes incorrect information, or misinformation, is spread. When this happens, it is important to set the record straight.

This paper studies misinformation about artificial superintelligence, which is AI that is much smarter than humans. Current AI is not superintelligent, but if superintelligence is built, it could have massive consequences. Misinformation about superintelligence could …

Read More »

Superintelligence Skepticism As A Political Tool

Post Date August 24, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category announcement, articles, artificial intelligence

View the paper “Superintelligence Skepticism as a Political Tool”

For decades, there have been efforts to exploit uncertainty about science and technology for political purposes. This practice traces to the tobacco industry’s effort to sow doubt about the link between tobacco and cancer, and it can be seen today in skepticism about climate change and other major risks. This paper analyzes the possibility that the same could happen for the potential future artificial intelligence technology known as superintelligence.

Artificial superintelligence is AI that is much smarter than …

Read More »

Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Post Date August 17, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category announcement, articles, asteroids, risk analysis

View the paper “Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold”

Asteroid collision is probably the most well-understood global catastrophic risk. This paper shows that it’s not so well understood after all, due to uncertainty in the human consequences. This finding matters both for asteroid risk and for the wider study of global catastrophic risk. If asteroid risk is not well understood, then neither are other risks such as nuclear war and pandemics.

In addition to our understanding of the risks, two other …

Read More »

August Newsletter: Long-Term Trajectories

Post Date August 15, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

This month I am proud to announce a new paper, “Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization“. The paper calls for attention to the fate of human civilization over time scales of millions, billions, or trillions of years into the future. While most attention goes to nearer-term phenomena, the long-term can be profoundly important to present-day decision-making. For example, one major issue the paper examines is the fate of global catastrophe survivors. How well they fare is a central factor in whether people today should focus …

Read More »

Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Post Date August 08, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category announcement, articles, ethics, post-catastrophe

View the paper “Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization”

Society today needs greater attention to the long-term fate of human civilization. Important present-day decisions can affect what happens millions, billions, or trillions of years into the future. The long-term effects may be the most important factor for present-day decisions and must be taken into account. An international group of 14 scholars calls for the dedicated study of “long-term trajectories of human civilization” in order to understand long-term outcomes and inform decision-making. This new approach is presented in …

Read More »

June Newsletter: Summer Talks

Post Date June 21, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Artificial Intelligence

GCRI Associate Roman Yampolskiy gave a talk on AI safety to the Global Challenges Summit 2018 in Astana, Kazakhstan May 17-19.

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum and GCRI Associate Roman Yampolskiy participated in a workshop on “AI Coordination & Great Powers” hosted by Foresight Institute in San Francisco on June 7.

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum gave a seminar on “AI Risk, Ethics, Social Science, and Policy” hosted by the University of California, Berkeley Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence (CHAI) on June 11.

Effective Altruism

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum …

Read More »

May Newsletter: Molecular Nanotechnology

Post Date May 22, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

It has been a productive month for GCRI, with new papers by several of our affiliates. Here, I would like to highlight one by Steven Umbrello and myself, on the topic of molecular nanotechnology, also known as atomically precise manufacturing (APM).

At present, APM exists only in a crude form, such as the work recognized by the 2016 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. However, it may be able to revolutionize manufacturing, making it inexpensive and easy to produce a wide range of goods, resulting in what …

Read More »

April Newsletter: Nuclear War Impacts

Post Date April 24, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category newsletter

Dear friends,

This month we are announcing a new paper, “A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War”, co-authored by Tony Barrett and myself. The paper presents a detailed and comprehensive accounting of the many ways that nuclear war can harm human beings and human society. It is a counterpart to the paper we announced last month, “A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War”.

The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of impacts of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing …

Read More »

A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War

Post Date April 03, 2018
Comments Comments Closed
Author
Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War”

The total impact of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model includes physical, infrastructural, and social impacts as they affect human lives. The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human …

Read More »
« Older Entries
Newer Entries »