GCRI 2019 Plans: Global Catastrophic Risk Topics

Post Date November 27, 2018
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Category planning

GCRI’s ultimate aim is to develop the best ways of reducing global catastrophic risk. We recognize that global catastrophic risk is a complex and multifaceted issue area, and we do not start with any sweeping assumptions about what the best ways of reducing the risk may be. Instead, we work across a range of risks in order to identify the best opportunities. (In principle, we aspire to work across all of the risks, but at this time we can only work on some.) This is …

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The Role of Risk and Decision Analysis in Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction

Post Date November 26, 2018
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Category discussion, risk analysis

This post provides some general discussion on how we at GCRI currently view risk and decision analysis. It has long been a major theme for our work, but it is somewhat controversial in our own minds. This post shares our current thinking in order to prompt wider discussion of these important but challenging research tools.

GCRI is a leader in the use of risk and decision analysis to understand global catastrophic risk. Risk analysis is the process of characterizing and perhaps quantifying the probabilities and severities …

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November Newsletter: Organization Updates

Post Date November 08, 2018
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Category newsletter

Dear friends,

We are currently in the process of implementing some major organization updates. These are making the organization more in line with our ongoing work and future plans.

First, we’ve published new pages for the seven topics that our work focuses on:

Aftermath of Global Catastrophe
Artificial Intelligence
Cross-Risk Evaluation & Prioritization
Nanotechnology
Nuclear War
Risk & Decision Analysis
Solutions & Strategy

Second, we’ve overhauled our affiliates, removing Associates and Junior Associates and creating a new Senior Advisory Council. We are delighted to welcome Gary Ackerman, John Garrick, and Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh as GCRI’s …

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GCRI Affiliates Overhaul

Post Date November 06, 2018
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Category announcement

GCRI has made several major changes to our roster of affiliates, as reflected on our People page. These changes make our listing of affiliates more consistent with how GCRI is actually operating at this time and prepares us for future directions we hope to pursue.

First, the GCRI leadership team now consists only of Tony Barrett (Director of Research), Robert de Neufville (Director of Communications), and myself (Executive Director). Grant Wilson (Deputy Director) has been removed. Grant has made excellent contributions since the early days of …

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New Topics Pages

Post Date November 05, 2018
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Category announcement

GCRI is in the process of several general organization updates. The first is a new collection of topics pages published on our website. They cover the major topics that GCRI currently works on. These replace our previous collection of projects pages, which had fallen out of date. The new topics pages briefly summarize the topic itself and GCRI’s work on it, and then list GCRI’s publications on the topic.

The topics are as follows:

Aftermath of Global Catastrophe. How well would survivors of global catastrophe fare? This …

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October Newsletter: The Superintelligence Debate

Post Date October 02, 2018
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Category artificial intelligence, newsletter

Dear friends,

When I look at debates about risks from artificial intelligence, I see a lot of parallels with debates over global warming. Both involve global catastrophic risks that are, to a large extent, driven by highly profitable industries. Indeed, today most of the largest corporations in the world are in either the computer technology or fossil fuel industries.

One key difference is that whereas global warming debates have been studied in great detail by many talented researchers, AI debates have barely been studied at all. As …

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Countering Superintelligence Misinformation

Post Date October 01, 2018
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Category articles, artificial intelligence, psychology & communications

View the paper “Countering Superintelligence Misinformation”

In any public issue, having the right information can help us make the right decisions. This holds in particular for high-stakes issues like the global catastrophic risks. Unfortunately, sometimes incorrect information, or misinformation, is spread. When this happens, it is important to set the record straight.

This paper studies misinformation about artificial superintelligence, which is AI that is much smarter than humans. Current AI is not superintelligent, but if superintelligence is built, it could have massive consequences. Misinformation about superintelligence could …

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Superintelligence Skepticism As A Political Tool

Post Date August 24, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, artificial intelligence

View the paper “Superintelligence Skepticism as a Political Tool”

For decades, there have been efforts to exploit uncertainty about science and technology for political purposes. This practice traces to the tobacco industry’s effort to sow doubt about the link between tobacco and cancer, and it can be seen today in skepticism about climate change and other major risks. This paper analyzes the possibility that the same could happen for the potential future artificial intelligence technology known as superintelligence.

Artificial superintelligence is AI that is much smarter than …

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Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Post Date August 17, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, risk analysis

View the paper “Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold”

Asteroid collision is probably the most well-understood global catastrophic risk. This paper shows that it’s not so well understood after all, due to uncertainty in the human consequences. This finding matters both for asteroid risk and for the wider study of global catastrophic risk. If asteroid risk is not well understood, then neither are other risks such as nuclear war and pandemics.

In addition to our understanding of the risks, two other …

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August Newsletter: Long-Term Trajectories

Post Date August 15, 2018
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Category newsletter

Dear friends,

This month I am proud to announce a new paper, “Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization“. The paper calls for attention to the fate of human civilization over time scales of millions, billions, or trillions of years into the future. While most attention goes to nearer-term phenomena, the long-term can be profoundly important to present-day decision-making. For example, one major issue the paper examines is the fate of global catastrophe survivors. How well they fare is a central factor in whether people today should focus …

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