Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Post Date June 17, 2019
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection”

If an asteroid is found to be on collision course with Earth, it may be possible to deflect it away. One way of deflecting asteroids would be to use nuclear explosives. A nuclear deflection program may reduce the risk of an asteroid collision, but it might also inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war or other violent conflict. This paper analyzes this potential tradeoff and evaluates its policy implications. The paper is published in …

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May Newsletter: Call For Advisees & Collaborators

Post Date May 30, 2019
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Dear friends,

I’m pleased to announce that GCRI has recently launched an open call for advisees and collaborators. If you are interested in working with GCRI, or if you would simply like some advice from us on how you can get involved in global catastrophic risk, then please don’t hesitate to reach out. We welcome inquiries from people at all career points, from students to senior scholars and professionals. Please see our blog post for details.

Sincerely,

Seth BaumExecutive Director

Planetary Defense

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum gave a talk titled …

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Open Call for Advisees and Collaborators, May 2019

Post Date May 29, 2019
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Category outreach

GCRI is currently welcoming inquiries from people who are
interested in seeking our advice and/or collaborating with us on projects.

At this time we are holding a preliminary, informal, open call for people at all career points interested in working on any aspect of global catastrophic risk. We cannot engage with everyone, but will try to talk to as many interested people as we can.

Of particular interest:

Scholars and professionals at intermediate and senior career points (Ph.D. graduates and up, or equivalent professional experience) whose work overlaps with …

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Violent Conflict Risk in Planetary Defense Decisions

Post Date May 14, 2019
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GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum gave a talk titled “Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions” at the 2019 International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Planetary Defense Conference in Washington, D.C. Baum’s talk looked at the relationship between efforts to protect the Earth from the impact of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and the risk of violent conflict. Richard A. Lovett wrote about Baum’s talk and about the discussion of planetary defense decisions at the conference in Cosmos.

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum gave a talk titled …

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Why Catastrophes Can Change the Course of Humanity

Post Date April 18, 2019
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BBC Future just published an essay by GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum titled “Why Catastrophes Can Change the Course of Humanity” on global catastrophes and the long-term fate of human civilization. The essay argues that we need to consider the impact of potential catastrophes not just on people alive today but also on the long-term future of humanity.

The essay draws on a paper Dr. Baum wrote with a group of scholars including Olle Häggström, Robin Hanson, Karin Kuhlemann, Anders Sandberg, and Roman …

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Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

Post Date April 02, 2019
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View the paper “Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing”

Atomically precise manufacturing (APM) is the assembly of materials with atomic precision. APM does not currently exist, and may not be feasible, but if it is feasible, then the societal impacts could be dramatic. This paper assesses the net societal impacts of APM across the full range of important APM sectors: general material wealth, environmental issues, military affairs, surveillance, artificial intelligence, and space travel. Positive effects were found for material wealth, the …

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March Newsletter: Policy Outreach

Post Date March 28, 2019
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Category newsletter, outreach

Dear friends,

This month, GCRI welcomes our newest team member, Jared Brown, who will serve as GCRI’s Special Advisor for Government Affairs. Until recently, he worked at the US Congressional Research Service, building practical knowledge of the workings of the US government, especially with respect to emergency management and homeland security. Now, he is applying this knowledge to global catastrophic risk. His work supports the broader global catastrophic risk community’s policy outreach efforts, especially with the US government. We at GCRI are grateful for Mr. Brown’s …

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GCRI Welcomes Special Advisor Jared Brown

Post Date March 27, 2019
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I am delighted to announce GCRI’s newest team member, Jared Brown, who will serve as GCRI’s Special Advisor for Government Affairs. Mr. Brown will assist GCRI in particular with our policy outreach, mainly with the United States government. Outreach is a growing focus for GCRI, and Mr. Brown’s assistance will be of tremendous value for this. (For further detail on our outreach, please see Summary of GCRI’s 2018-2019 Accomplishments, Plans, and Fundraising.)

Until recently, Mr. Brown worked at the US Congressional Research Service, developing a very …

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February Newsletter: Nuclear War Risk Analysis

Post Date February 28, 2019
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Dear friends, In order to most effectively reduce the risk of global catastrophe, it is often essential to have a quantitative understanding of the risk. It is particularly essential when we are faced with decisions that involve tradeoffs between different risks and decisions that require prioritizing among multiple risks. For this reason, GCRI has long been at the forefront of the risk and decision analysis of global catastrophic risk. This month, we announce a new paper, “Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War”. This paper summarizes the …

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Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

Post Date February 15, 2019
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Category articles, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War”

Would the world be safer with or without nuclear weapons? On one hand, nuclear weapons may increase the severity of war due to their extreme explosive power. On the other hand, they may decrease the frequency of major wars by strengthening deterrence. Is the decrease in frequency enough to offset the increase in severity? (This tradeoff is illustrated in the graphic above.) This is a vital policy question for which risk analysis has …

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