Countering Superintelligence Misinformation

Post Date October 01, 2018
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Category articles, artificial intelligence, psychology & communications

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In any public issue, having the right information can help us make the right decisions. This holds in particular for high-stakes issues like the global catastrophic risks. Unfortunately, sometimes incorrect information, or misinformation, is spread. When this happens, it is important to set the record straight.

This paper studies misinformation about artificial superintelligence, which is AI that is much smarter than humans. Current AI is not superintelligent, but if superintelligence is built, it could have massive consequences. Misinformation about superintelligence could …

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Superintelligence Skepticism As A Political Tool

Post Date August 24, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, artificial intelligence

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For decades, there have been efforts to exploit uncertainty about science and technology for political purposes. This practice traces to the tobacco industry’s effort to sow doubt about the link between tobacco and cancer, and it can be seen today in skepticism about climate change and other major risks. This paper analyzes the possibility that the same could happen for the potential future artificial intelligence technology known as superintelligence.

Artificial superintelligence is AI that is much smarter than …

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Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Post Date August 17, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, risk analysis

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Asteroid collision is probably the most well-understood global catastrophic risk. This paper shows that it’s not so well understood after all, due to uncertainty in the human consequences. This finding matters both for asteroid risk and for the wider study of global catastrophic risk. If asteroid risk is not well understood, then neither are other risks such as nuclear war and pandemics.

In addition to our understanding of the risks, two other …

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Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Post Date August 08, 2018
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Category announcement, articles, ethics, post-catastrophe

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Society today needs greater attention to the long-term fate of human civilization. Important present-day decisions can affect what happens millions, billions, or trillions of years into the future. The long-term effects may be the most important factor for present-day decisions and must be taken into account. An international group of 14 scholars calls for the dedicated study of “long-term trajectories of human civilization” in order to understand long-term outcomes and inform decision-making. This new approach is presented in …

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A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War

Post Date April 03, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

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The total impact of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model includes physical, infrastructural, and social impacts as they affect human lives. The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human …

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A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War

Post Date March 08, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

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The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total probability of nuclear war. The model is based on 14 interrelated scenarios for how nuclear war can break out, covering perhaps the entire range of nuclear war scenarios. Scenarios vary based on factors including whether a state intends to make a first strike attack, whether …

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Modeling and Interpreting Expert Disagreement About Artificial Superintelligence

Post Date December 12, 2017
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Category artificial intelligence, publications

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Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is artificial intelligence (AI) with capabilities that are significantly greater than human capabilities across a wide range of domains. A hallmark of the ASI issue is disagreement among experts. This paper demonstrates and discusses methodological options for modeling and interpreting expert disagreement about the risk of ASI catastrophe. Using a new model called ASI-PATH, the paper models a well-documented recent disagreement between Nick Bostrom and Ben Goertzel, two distinguished ASI experts. Three …

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A Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

Post Date November 12, 2017
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Category artificial intelligence, publications

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Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is AI that can reason across a wide range of domains. While most AI research and development (R&D) is on narrow AI, not AGI, there is some dedicated AGI R&D. If AGI is built, its impacts could be profound. Depending on how it is designed and used, it could either help solve the world’s problems or cause catastrophe, possibly even human extinction.

This paper presents the first-ever survey …

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On the Promotion of Safe and Socially Beneficial Artificial Intelligence

Post Date October 10, 2017
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Category artificial intelligence, publications

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As AI becomes more and more capable, its impacts on society are also getting larger. AI is now being used in medicine, transportation (self-driving cars), the military (drones), and many other sectors. The impacts of AI on society depend a lot on how the AI is designed. To improve AI design, two challenges must be met. There is the technical challenge of developing safe and beneficial technology designs, and there is the social …

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Liability Law for Present and Future Robotics Technology

Post Date October 10, 2017
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Category artificial intelligence, law & policy, publications

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Advances in robotics technology are causing major changes in manufacturing, transportation, medicine, and a number of other sectors. While many of these changes are beneficial, there will inevitably be some harms. Who or what is liable when a robot causes harm? This paper addresses how liability law can and should account for robots, including robots that exist today and robots that potentially could be built at some point in the near or distant future. Already, …

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