Assessing Natural Global Catastrophic Risks

Post Date October 14, 2022
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View the paper “Assessing Natural Global Catastrophic Risks”

Humanity today faces a wide range of threats. Some, such as nuclear war, are of human origin. Others, such as volcano eruptions, are not. The relative importance of these two categories of risk is a matter of ongoing debate. This paper argues that prior theoretical research has understated the risk from natural threats. It presents analysis of six natural global catastrophic risks, finding potential for several to pose a high ongoing risk to humanity.

Prior research has posed a …

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Doing Better on Climate Change

Post Date October 07, 2022
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View the article “Doing Better on Climate Change”.

This article, published in the Effective Altruism Forum, presents a wide-ranging discussion of how to factor climate change into efforts to make the world a better place. The article relates climate change to other global catastrophic risks and related issues. It emphasizes the value of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and explains which activities are effective at reducing emissions.

The article begins as follows:

Summary: How to factor climate change into our efforts to make the world a better place. For …

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Book Review: The Precipice

Post Date May 09, 2022
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Book review of The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, by Toby Ord, Hachette Books, 2020.

The new book The Precipice by Toby Ord provides a wide-ranging survey of topics related to global catastrophic risk. Compared to other books on global catastrophic risk, The Precipice stands out for its depth of discussion, its quality of scholarship, and its readability. However, the book errs in its emphasis on only the most extreme global catastrophe scenarios, its strong belief in the resilience of civilization, and …

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Pandemic Refuges: Lessons from Two Years of COVID-19

Post Date May 06, 2022
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Category infectious disease, publications

View the paper “Pandemic Refuges: Lessons from Two Years of COVID-19”

Refuges have been proposed as a means of ensuring that at least some people survive a global catastrophe. While it would be better to avoid the catastrophe in the first place, if a catastrophe is to occur, a refuge could be a real difference-maker in terms of the long-term effects on human civilization. Prior refuges research emphasizes highly isolated locations such as underground, underwater, or in outer space. These exotic concepts may seem far removed …

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Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category nuclear war

View the article “Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”.

This article, published in the Effective Altruism Forum, presents analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine written for a global catastrophic risk audience. The article discusses nuclear war risk, the changing geopolitical landscape, and recommendations for personal preparedness and philanthropy. It also describes the author’s own activities in addressing the immediate risk and presents a compilation of resources for learning more about the war.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The …

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How to Evaluate the Risk of Nuclear War

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category media coverage, nuclear war

View the article “How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war”.

This article, published in BBC Future, discusses the quantitative analysis of nuclear war risk. It is written in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and also discusses more general analytical issues, such as found in GCRI’s nuclear war research.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The article begins as follows:

One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see the Sun was shining. My neighbourhood …

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GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 03, 2022
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Category news coverage, news summary, nuclear war, statement

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is already shaping up to be an event of historic proportions. This includes, but is certainly not limited to, its implications for global catastrophic risk. We at GCRI are monitoring the unfolding events with great concern. While it is always important to understand all parties’ perspectives on a conflict, in this case we find ourselves strongly condemning the actions of the Russian government. Our hearts go out to the many people in Ukraine who have been tragically affected by …

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February Newsletter: Ukraine & Pluralism

Post Date February 28, 2022
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Category ethics, newsletter, nuclear war

Dear friends,

We at GCRI are watching the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine with great concern. In addition to the grave harm being inflicted on the Ukrainian people, this invasion also constitutes a large escalation of tensions between Russia and the West and a shooting war adjacent to several NATO countries. In our judgment, this increases the risk of US-Russia or NATO-Russia nuclear war and accompanying nuclear winter. Our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine who are enduring this tragic violence. For the sake …

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GCRI Statement on Pluralism in the Field of Global Catastrophic Risk

Post Date February 17, 2022
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Global catastrophic risk is an important societal issue area. As such, it is to be expected that there will be a variety of views on it. We at GCRI believe that it is important to consider a range of views to better understand the topic of global catastrophic risk and the constructive options for addressing the risk. We are likewise interested in supporting a pluralistic field of global catastrophic risk.

Many types of pluralism can be valuable for the field of global catastrophic risk. Examples include …

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GCRI Receives $200,000 for 2022 Work on AI

Post Date December 08, 2021
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Category announcement

I am delighted to announce that GCRI has received a new $200,000 donation to fund work on AI in 2022 from Gordon Irlam. Irlam had previously made donations funding AI project work conducted in 2021, 2020, and 2019.

All of us at GCRI are grateful for this donation. We are excited to continue our work addressing AI risk.

Our projects for 2022 cover the following topics:

Continuation of prior projects: We will continue work on select projects from previous years.

Further support for the AI and global catastrophic risk talent pools: This project extends …

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