False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War

View the paper “False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War”

In the post–Cold War era, it is tempting to see the threat of nuclear war between the United States and Russia as remote: Both nations’ nuclear arsenals have shrunk since their Cold War peaks, and neither nation is actively threatening the other with war. A number of analysts, however, warn of the risk of an inadvertent nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia — that is, a conflict that …

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December Newsletter: A Focus On Solutions

Dear friends,

This holiday season, please consider supporting the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. You can donate online or contact me for further information. At this time, GCRI’s success is limited mainly by its available funding. And nothing beats giving the gift of protection from global catastrophe.

In my view, what’s ultimately important is not the risks themselves but the actions we can take to reduce them. A risk could be very large, but if we can’t do anything about it, then we should focus on something else. …

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The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives

View the paper “The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives”

Certain major global catastrophes could cause permanent harm to humanity. A large body of scholarship makes a moral argument for confronting the threat of these catastrophes based on a concern for far future generations. The far future can be defined as anything beyond the next several millennia, including millions or billions of years from now, or even longer. Given the moral principle of caring about everyone equally, including people …

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Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter

View the paper “Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter”

Nuclear weapons explosions send large quantities of smoke high into the atmosphere. The smoke blocks incoming sunlight and destroys ozone, causing major environmental harms worldwide, including cold temperatures, reduced precipitation, and increased ultraviolet radiation. In technical terms, nuclear winter refers to cooling such that winter-like temperatures occur during summer, as caused by nuclear war. This paper uses the term nuclear winter more generally to refer to the full set of global environmental harms from nuclear war. The …

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Isolated Refuges for Surviving Global Catastrophes

View the paper “Isolated Refuges for Surviving Global Catastrophes”

The long-term success of human civilization is of immense importance because of the huge number of lives at stake, in particular the lives of countless future generations. A catastrophe that causes permanent harm to human civilization would be a similarly immense loss. Some measures taken pre-catastrophe could help people survive and carry humanity into the future. This paper analyzes how refuges could keep a small population alive through a range of global catastrophe scenarios. The paper considers …

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Introduction: Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity

View the paper “Introduction: Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity”

Humanity faces a range of threats to its viability as a civilization and its very survival. These catastrophic threats include natural disasters such as supervolcano eruptions and large asteroid collisions as well as disasters caused by human activity such as nuclear war and global warming. The threats are diverse, but their would-be result is the same: the collapse of global human civilization or even human extinction.

These diverse threats are increasingly studied as one integrated field, using …

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September Newsletter: AI, Nuclear War, and News Projects

Dear friends,

I’m delighted to announce three new funded projects. Two of them are for risk modeling, on artificial intelligence and nuclear war. These follow directly from our established nuclear war and emerging technologies research projects. The third is for covering current events across the breadth of global catastrophic risk topics. This follows directly from our news summaries. It is an honor to be recognized for our work and to have the opportunity to expand it. Please stay tuned as these projects unfold.

As always, thank you …

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New Global Challenges Foundation Projects

GCRI has two new funded projects with the Global Challenges Foundation, a philanthropic foundation based in Stockholm.

The first project is a quarterly report of everything going on in the world of global catastrophic risks. The reports will be an expanded version of our monthly news summaries, with some new features and an emphasis on work going on around the world to reduce the risks.

The second project is a risk analysis of nuclear war. Prior GCRI nuclear war research modeled the probability of specific nuclear war …

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Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity

Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity is a special issue of the journal Futures co-edited by Bruce Tonn and myself. It contains 11 original articles discussing a range of issues on catastrophic threats. It is part of ongoing attention to catastrophic threats in Futures.

Relative to prior collections, such as the 2008 book Global Catastrophic Risks and the 2009 special issue of Futures Human Extinction, this special issue aims to contribute more of a practical focus to the study of catastrophic threats to humanity, in order to better guide humanity’s …

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Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process

View the paper “Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process”

Already computers can outsmart humans in specific domains, like multiplication. But humans remain firmly in control… for now. Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is AI with intelligence that vastly exceeds humanity’s across a broad range of domains. Experts increasingly believe that ASI could be built sometime in the future, could take control of the planet away from humans, and could cause a global catastrophe. Alternatively, if ASI is built safely, it may …

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