June Newsletter: Racism and Global Catastrophic Risk

Post Date June 30, 2020
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Dear friends,

The ongoing wave of anti-racism protests are prompting long-overdue conversation and action to establish a more equitable society in the US and worldwide. We at GCRI are saddened by the tragic deaths that have sparked these protests and hopeful that something good can come out of it.

For our part, we have contributed to the conversation by publishing a statement on racism. To summarize: We see moral and practical links between the problems of racism and global catastrophic risk. They are both large-scale issues whose …

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May Newsletter: Pandemic and New Hire

Post Date May 08, 2020
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Dear friends,

We are amidst the most severe global event in decades. The COVID-19 pandemic is unfortunately showing all too clearly how certain threats can devastate human society and individual lives around the world. We at GCRI offer our condolences to those who have lost loved ones and stand with those working to pull through this tragic ordeal. We are not pandemics experts, but we are pursuing opportunities to apply our background in catastrophic risk to the ongoing pandemic response. For more on our perspective on …

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November Newsletter: A Year of Growth

Post Date November 26, 2019
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Dear friends,

2019 has been a year of growth for GCRI. One year ago, we described a turning point for the organization and announced our goal of scaling up to increase our impact on global catastrophic risk. Over the past year, we have made considerable progress toward this goal. We have expanded our team, published work in top journals such as Science and Risk Analysis, and hosted a tremendously successful advising and collaboration program in support of talented people around the world. All this and more …

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Lessons for Artificial Intelligence from Other Global Risks

Post Date November 21, 2019
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View the paper “Lessons for Artificial Intelligence from Other Global Risks”

It has become clear in recent years that AI poses important global risks. The study of AI risk is relatively new, but it can potentially learn a lot from the study of similar, better-studied risks. GCRI’s new paper applies to the study of AI risk lessons from four other risks: biotechnology, nuclear weapons, global warming, and asteroids. The paper is co-authored by GCRI’s Seth Baum, Robert de Neufville, and Tony Barrett, along with GCRI Senior …

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May Newsletter: Molecular Nanotechnology

Post Date May 22, 2018
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Dear friends,

It has been a productive month for GCRI, with new papers by several of our affiliates. Here, I would like to highlight one by Steven Umbrello and myself, on the topic of molecular nanotechnology, also known as atomically precise manufacturing (APM).

At present, APM exists only in a crude form, such as the work recognized by the 2016 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. However, it may be able to revolutionize manufacturing, making it inexpensive and easy to produce a wide range of goods, resulting in what …

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March Newsletter: Nuclear War Probability

Post Date March 15, 2018
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Dear friends,

This month we are announcing a new paper, “A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War”, co-authored by Robert de Neufville, Tony Barrett, and myself. The paper presents the most detailed accounting of the probability of nuclear war yet available.

The core of the paper is a model covering 14 scenarios for how nuclear war could occur. In 6 scenarios, a state intentionally starts nuclear war. In the other 8, a state mistakenly believes it is under nuclear attack by another state and starts nuclear …

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January Newsletter: Superintelligence & Hawaii False Alarm

Post Date January 29, 2018
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Dear friends,

This month marks the release of Superintelligence, a special issue of the journal Informatica co-edited by GCRI’s Matthijs Maas and Roman Yampolskiy along with Ryan Carey and Nell Watson. It contains an interesting mix of papers on AI risk. One of the papers is “Modeling and Interpreting Expert Disagreement About Artificial Superintelligence”, co-authored by Yampolskiy, Tony Barrett, and myself. This paper applies our ASI-PATH risk model to an ongoing debate between two leading AI risk experts, Nick Bostrom and Ben Goertzel. It shows how risk analysis can capture …

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October Newsletter: How To Reduce Risk

Post Date October 06, 2017
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Dear friends,

As we speak, a group of researchers is meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden on the theme of existential risk. I joined it earlier in September. My commendations to Olle Häggström and Anders Sandberg for hosting an excellent event.

My talk in Gothenburg focused on how to find the best opportunities to reduce risk. The best opportunities are often a few steps removed from academic risk and policy analysis. For example, there is a large research literature on climate change policy, much of which factors in catastrophic risk. However, the …

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April Newsletter

Post Date April 03, 2017
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Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

GCRI executive director Seth Baum has joined the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) as a research affiliate. The affiliation is in recognition of the contribution Baum has made to CSER.

Colloquium on Catastrophic and Existential Threats

GCRI executive director Seth Baum gave a talk titled “Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk” and GCRI director of research Tony Barrett gave a talk titled “Towards Integrated, Comprehensive Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risks to Inform Risk Reduction” at the Garrick Institute …

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November Newsletter: Media Engagement Intern Program

Post Date November 07, 2016
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Dear friends,

I am delighted to announce GCRI’s new media engagement internship program. We have selected four people from a highly competitive pool of applicants. Each of the interns is a talented student or young professional with a promising career in global catastrophic risk ahead. They are Marilyn Cotrich, an undergraduate at Arizona State; Jenny Mith, a community manager at IVY; Adam Scholl, a media entrepreneur and independent analyst; and Lena Wang, an undergraduate at the University of Sydney currently on exchange at UCLA. They are …

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