August 2023 Newsletter: Call For Advisees & Collaborators

Dear friends,

GCRI’s 2023 Advising and Collaboration Program is now open. We welcome anyone who is interested in getting more involved in global catastrophic risk, or advancing your career in it. We also welcome those who would simply like to connect or reconnect. This year, we are emphasizing five themes: diversity and inclusion; AI governance; AI politics; public scholarship; and students and early-career professionals. Your interests do not need to fit within one or more these themes to participate, but it helps if they do. Please …

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May Newsletter: Pandemic and New Hire

Dear friends,

We are amidst the most severe global event in decades. The COVID-19 pandemic is unfortunately showing all too clearly how certain threats can devastate human society and individual lives around the world. We at GCRI offer our condolences to those who have lost loved ones and stand with those working to pull through this tragic ordeal. We are not pandemics experts, but we are pursuing opportunities to apply our background in catastrophic risk to the ongoing pandemic response. For more on our perspective on …

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October Newsletter: Society for Risk Analysis Symposium

2016 Society for Risk Analysis Meeting

GCRI will lead a symposium on global catastrophic risk at the 2016 meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), December 11-15 in San Diego. SRA is the premier academic and professional society for risk analysis. GCRI has led symposiums at SRA meetings since 2010. The 2016 GCRI symposium features five talks focused on risks from artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons.

Artificial Intelligence

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum’s paper, “On the promotion of safe and socially beneficial artificial intelligence” has been accepted for publication …

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August Newsletter: New Director of Communications

Dear friends,

It is my pleasure to announce that longtime GCRI Associate Robert de Neufville has been promoted to the position of Director of Communications. Robert will oversee GCRI’s website and newsletter, as well as lead a renewed media outreach program. He also joinsTony Barrett, Grant Wilson, and myself on GCRI’s leadership team. Robert’s work is funded through a donation GCRI recently secured from Pattern, an AI company that, like GCRI, has a “geographically decentralized” structure in which workers can live anywhere in the world. We …

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Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter

View the paper “Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter”

Nuclear weapons explosions send large quantities of smoke high into the atmosphere. The smoke blocks incoming sunlight and destroys ozone, causing major environmental harms worldwide, including cold temperatures, reduced precipitation, and increased ultraviolet radiation. In technical terms, nuclear winter refers to cooling such that winter-like temperatures occur during summer, as caused by nuclear war. This paper uses the term nuclear winter more generally to refer to the full set of global environmental harms from nuclear war. The …

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Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply

View the paper “Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply”

In a recent issue of this journal, I published an article proposing the concept of winter-safe deterrence. The article defined winter-safe deterrence as “military force capable of meeting the deterrence goals of today’s nuclear weapon states without risking catastrophic nuclear winter”. The article and a summary version published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have since stimulated extensive discussion in social media, the Bulletin, and now a symposium in this journal. The discussion has been productive for refining certain …

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June Newsletter: The Winter-Safe Deterrence Controversy

Dear friends,

The last few months have gone well for GCRI. We have several new papers out, two new student affiliates, and some projects in the works that I hope to announce in an upcoming newsletter. Meanwhile, I’d like to share with you about a little controversy we recently found ourselves in.

The controversy surrounds a new research paper of mine titled Winter-safe deterrence: The risk of nuclear winter and its challenge to deterrence. The essence of winter-safe deterrence is to seek options for deterrence that would …

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Winter-Safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and Its Challenge to Deterrence

View the paper “Winter-Safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and Its Challenge to Deterrence”

Eight countries have large nuclear arsenals: China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. North Korea might have a small nuclear arsenal. These countries have nuclear weapons for several reasons. Perhaps the biggest reason is deterrence. Nuclear deterrence means threatening other countries with nuclear weapons in order to persuade them not to attack. When nuclear deterrence works, it can help avoid nuclear war. However, nuclear deterrence …

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GCR News Summary December 2014

Castle Bravo nuclear test image courtesy of the US Department of Energy

The Marshall Islands presented written arguments to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its case against the world’s nuclear powers. The Marshall Islands argued that the nine nuclear powers have flouted their legal obligation to disarm under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and under customary international law. The Marshall Islands was the site of 67 US nuclear tests, including the 15-megaton “Castle Bravo” test. Article VI of the …

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GCR News Summary March 2014

US Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman at Maidan Memorial in Kyiv image courtesy of the US Embassy in Kyiv under a Creative Commons Attribution NoDerivs 2.0 Generic License

On March 18, Russia formally annexed the Ukrainian province of Crimea. Russian troops without official markings occupied the Crimean peninsula earlier in the month after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country. The Crimean peninsula was part of Russia before it was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954. Crimea is …

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