Collaborative Publishing with GCRI

Post Date November 18, 2021
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Global catastrophic risk is a highly complex, interdisciplinary topic. It benefits from contributions from many people with a variety of backgrounds. For this reason, GCRI emphasizes collaborative publishing. We publish extensively with outside scholars at all career points, including early-career scholars who are relatively new to the field, as well as mid-career and senior scholars at other organizations who bring complementary expertise.

This post describes our approach to collaborative publishing and documents our collaborative publications. Researchers interested in publishing with GCRI should visit our get involved page. The …

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Corporate Governance of Artificial Intelligence in the Public Interest

Post Date August 03, 2021
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View the paper “Corporate Governance of Artificial Intelligence in the Public Interest”

OCTOBER 28, 2021: This post has been corrected to fix an error.

Private industry is at the forefront of AI technology. About half of artificial general intelligence (AGI) R&D projects, including some of the largest ones, are based in corporations, which is far more than in any other institution type. Given the importance of AI technology, including for global catastrophic risk, it is essential to ensure that corporations develop and use AI in appropriate ways. …

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Collective Action on Artificial Intelligence: A Primer and Review

Post Date July 15, 2021
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View the paper “Collective Action on Artificial Intelligence: A Primer and Review”

The development of safe and socially beneficial artificial intelligence (AI) will require collective action: outcomes will depend on the actions that many different people take. In recent years, a sizable but disparate literature has looked at the challenges posed by collective action on AI, but this literature is generally not well grounded in the broader social science literature on collective action. This paper advances the study of collective action on AI by providing a …

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Moral Consideration of Nonhumans in the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence

Post Date June 07, 2021
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View the paper “Moral Consideration of Nonhumans in the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence”

In the ethics of artificial intelligence, a major theme is the challenge of aligning AI to human values. This raises the question of the role of nonhumans. Indeed, AI can profoundly affect the nonhuman world, including nonhuman animals, the natural environment, and the AI itself. Given that large parts of the nonhuman world are already under immense threats from human affairs, there is reason to fear potentially catastrophic consequences should AI R&D fail …

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AI Certification: Advancing Ethical Practice by Reducing Information Asymmetries

Post Date June 02, 2021
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View the paper “AI Certification: Advancing Ethical Practice by Reducing Information Asymmetries”

Certification is widely used to convey that an entity has met some sort of performance standard. It includes everything from the certificate that people receive for completing a university degree to certificates for energy efficiency in consumer appliances and quality management in organizations. As AI technology becomes increasingly impactful across society, there can be a role for certification to improve AI governance. This paper presents an overview of AI certification, applying insights from prior …

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2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

Post Date December 31, 2020
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View the paper “2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy”

In 2017, GCRI published the first-ever survey of artificial general intelligence (AGI) research and development (R&D) projects for ethics, risk, and policy. This paper updates the 2017 survey. The 2020 survey features improved methodology, enabling it to find more projects than the 2017 survey and characterize them more precisely. The 2020 survey also evaluates how the landscape of AGI R&D projects has changed from 2017 to 2020.

AGI is AI that can …

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Accounting for Violent Conflict Risk in Planetary Defense Decisions

Post Date September 09, 2020
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Category asteroids, publications, risk analysis

View the paper “Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions”

Planetary defense is the defense of planet Earth against collisions with near-Earth objects (NEOs), which include asteroids, comets and meteoroids. A central objective of planetary defense is to reduce risks to Earth and its inhabitants. Whereas planetary defense is mainly focused on risks from NEO, this paper argues that planetary defense decisions should also account for other risks, especially risks from violent conflict. The paper is based on a talk I gave at the 2019 Planetary …

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Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.

Post Date August 10, 2020
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View the paper “Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.”

A major challenge for work on global catastrophic risk and existential risk is that the risks are very difficult to quantify. Global catastrophes rarely occur, and the most severe ones have never happened before, so the risk cannot be quantified using past event data. An excellent recent article by Simon Beard, Thomas Rowe, and James Fox surveys ten methods used in prior research on quantifying the probability of existential catastrophe. My new paper expands on the …

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Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

Post Date April 02, 2019
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View the paper “Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing”

Atomically precise manufacturing (APM) is the assembly of materials with atomic precision. APM does not currently exist, and may not be feasible, but if it is feasible, then the societal impacts could be dramatic. This paper assesses the net societal impacts of APM across the full range of important APM sectors: general material wealth, environmental issues, military affairs, surveillance, artificial intelligence, and space travel. Positive effects were found for material wealth, the …

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A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War

Post Date April 03, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War”

The total impact of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model includes physical, infrastructural, and social impacts as they affect human lives. The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human …

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