March Newsletter: Implications of the War in Ukraine

Post Date March 28, 2022
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Category ethics, newsletter, nuclear war, policy

Dear friends,The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already proving to be an event of profound importance for global catastrophic risk. As detailed in the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the war’s implications for nuclear war risk are especially strong, but it also has implications for other risks including climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. These changes are coming from the war itself and from the accompanying shifts in global politics. We at GCRI hope that the war can reach a prompt and peaceful …

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Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category nuclear war

View the article “Early Reflections and Resources on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”.

This article, published in the Effective Altruism Forum, presents analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine written for a global catastrophic risk audience. The article discusses nuclear war risk, the changing geopolitical landscape, and recommendations for personal preparedness and philanthropy. It also describes the author’s own activities in addressing the immediate risk and presents a compilation of resources for learning more about the war.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The …

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How to Evaluate the Risk of Nuclear War

Post Date March 18, 2022
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Category media coverage, nuclear war

View the article “How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war”.

This article, published in BBC Future, discusses the quantitative analysis of nuclear war risk. It is written in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and also discusses more general analytical issues, such as found in GCRI’s nuclear war research.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The article begins as follows:

One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see the Sun was shining. My neighbourhood …

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GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post Date March 03, 2022
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Category news coverage, news summary, nuclear war, statement

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is already shaping up to be an event of historic proportions. This includes, but is certainly not limited to, its implications for global catastrophic risk. We at GCRI are monitoring the unfolding events with great concern. While it is always important to understand all parties’ perspectives on a conflict, in this case we find ourselves strongly condemning the actions of the Russian government. Our hearts go out to the many people in Ukraine who have been tragically affected by …

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February Newsletter: Ukraine & Pluralism

Post Date February 28, 2022
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Category ethics, newsletter, nuclear war

Dear friends,

We at GCRI are watching the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine with great concern. In addition to the grave harm being inflicted on the Ukrainian people, this invasion also constitutes a large escalation of tensions between Russia and the West and a shooting war adjacent to several NATO countries. In our judgment, this increases the risk of US-Russia or NATO-Russia nuclear war and accompanying nuclear winter. Our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine who are enduring this tragic violence. For the sake …

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Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Post Date June 17, 2019
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Category announcement, articles, asteroids, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection”

If an asteroid is found to be on collision course with Earth, it may be possible to deflect it away. One way of deflecting asteroids would be to use nuclear explosives. A nuclear deflection program may reduce the risk of an asteroid collision, but it might also inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war or other violent conflict. This paper analyzes this potential tradeoff and evaluates its policy implications. The paper is published in …

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Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

Post Date February 15, 2019
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Category articles, nuclear war, risk analysis

View the paper “Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War”

Would the world be safer with or without nuclear weapons? On one hand, nuclear weapons may increase the severity of war due to their extreme explosive power. On the other hand, they may decrease the frequency of major wars by strengthening deterrence. Is the decrease in frequency enough to offset the increase in severity? (This tradeoff is illustrated in the graphic above.) This is a vital policy question for which risk analysis has …

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A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War

Post Date April 03, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Impacts Of Nuclear War”

The total impact of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model includes physical, infrastructural, and social impacts as they affect human lives. The model has five main branches corresponding to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human …

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A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War

Post Date March 08, 2018
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Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “A Model For The Probability Of Nuclear War”

The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total probability of nuclear war. The model is based on 14 interrelated scenarios for how nuclear war can break out, covering perhaps the entire range of nuclear war scenarios. Scenarios vary based on factors including whether a state intends to make a first strike attack, whether …

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False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War

Post Date January 01, 2016
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Category nuclear war, publications

View the paper “False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War”

In the post–Cold War era, it is tempting to see the threat of nuclear war between the United States and Russia as remote: Both nations’ nuclear arsenals have shrunk since their Cold War peaks, and neither nation is actively threatening the other with war. A number of analysts, however, warn of the risk of an inadvertent nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia — that is, a conflict that …

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