New Global Challenges Foundation Projects

GCRI has two new funded projects with the Global Challenges Foundation, a philanthropic foundation based in Stockholm.

The first project is a quarterly report of everything going on in the world of global catastrophic risks. The reports will be an expanded version of our monthly news summaries, with some new features and an emphasis on work going on around the world to reduce the risks.

The second project is a risk analysis of nuclear war. Prior GCRI nuclear war research modeled the probability of specific nuclear war …

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New Article On Syria And Nuclear War

Quick FYI – I have a new article out at Huffington Post: Taming the Gigaton Gorilla: Using Syria Diplomacy to Help Avoid U.S.-Russia Nuclear War. The article discusses the current diplomatic situation in Syria in terms of global catastrophic risk, in particular US-Russia nuclear war. The basic ideas are (1) the Syria situation should be approached mainly in terms of global catastrophic risk, instead of in terms of Syria itself, and (2) opportunities may exist for diplomacy regarding Syria to improve US-Russia relations so as …

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New Paper: Inadvertent Nuclear War

GCRI has another new academic paper out. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia, by Tony Barrett, Seth Baum, and Kelly Hostetler, has been accepted for publication in Science and Global Security.

The paper discusses the possibility of US-Russia nuclear war occurring when one country mistakenly concludes that a false alarm is real and launches nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack. Inadvertent US-Russia nuclear war has come close to happening before, even since the end …

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Nuclear War Group Discusses Ongoing Risk Of US-Russia Nuclear War

On Thursday 29 November, GCRI hosted the fourth of a series of discussions among a group of nuclear war scholars. This discussion focused on the ongoing risk of an all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia.

Meeting participants included Martin Hellman of Stanford, Benoit Pelopidas of Bristol, James Scouras of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, and Tony Barret, Seth Baum, Jacob Haqq-Misra, and Tim Maher, all of GCRI.

The reason for focusing on US-Russia nuclear war is simple: the US and Russia still …

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GCRI Nuclear War Group Discusses Nuclear Winter

On Thursday 8 November 2012, GCRI hosted the third of a series of discussions among a group of nuclear war scholars. This discussion focused on the topic of nuclear winter.

Meeting participants included Martin Hellman of Stanford, Benoit Pelopidas of Bristol, James Scouras of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, George Michael of the U.S. Air Force’s Air War College, and Tony Barret, Seth Baum, Jacob Haqq-Misra, and Tim Maher, all of GCRI.

The group discussed several aspects of nuclear winter. A key question is how …

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Meet The Team Tuesdays: Tony Barrett

This post is part of a weekly series introducing GCRI’s members.

Tony and I met at the 2010 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting. I was co-chair with Vanessa Schweizer of two sessions on global catastrophic risk. Vanessa and Tony had attended Carnegie Mellon’s Engineering & Public Policy PhD program together. Tony and I both wanted to focus our careers on GCR, and started thinking about the most effective ways of doing this. We benchmarked many other organizations and concluded that there was a need for …

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Tony Barrett Gives CSIS Practice Talk On Inadvertent Nuclear War To GCRI Nuclear War Group

On Thursday 11 October 2012,* GCRI hosted the second of a series of discussions among a group of nuclear war scholars. The discussion centered around a practice talk that Tony Barrett gave for an upcoming conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
* We apologize for the delays in getting this post online.

Meeting participants included Martin Hellman of Stanford and Seth Baum, Tony Barrett, and Jacob Haqq-Misra, all of GCRI.

Barrett’s talk, Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War between the United …

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Wei Luo Talks To GCRI About Geo-Social Visual Analytics And Pandemics

Wei Luo is a PhD candidate in Geography at Pennsylvania State University and researcher in Penn State’s GeoVISTA Center. He’s also a good friend of mine from my own time at Penn State Geography. Yesterday, Wei presented his research on geo-social visual analytics to GCRI, exploring how this research applies to global catastrophic risk.

Visual analytics can be defined as “the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces”. As an illustration of visual analytics, Wei recommends the video Precision Information Environments Envisioning the future …

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GCRI Hosts Discussion Of Nuclear War

On Thursday 27 September 2012, GCRI hosted the first of what looks to be an ongoing series of discussions among a group of nuclear war scholars. The discussion covered several nuclear war topics, including an extended discussion of nuclear winter.

Meeting participants included Martin Hellman of Stanford, James Scouras of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, and Seth Baum, Tony Barrett, Jacob Haqq-Misra, and Tim Maher, all of GCRI.

The group considered an observation that the United States government has not been as active as it …

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