How to Evaluate the Risk of Nuclear War

View the article “How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war”.

This article, published in BBC Future, discusses the quantitative analysis of nuclear war risk. It is written in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and also discusses more general analytical issues, such as found in GCRI’s nuclear war research.

See also the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The article begins as follows:

One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see the Sun was shining. My neighbourhood …

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BBC On Short-Termism And Long-Term Trajectories

Richard Fisher of the BBC has published a detailed and thoughtful article The perils of short-termism: Civilisation’s greatest threat. The article covers the widespread tendency across contemporary society to focus on very short-term issues and several efforts to promote more long-term thinking and action. The article includes a detailed discussion of the research paper Long-term trajectories of human civilization, which I am lead author of. The BBC article includes each of the four types of trajectories covered in the Long-term trajectories paper (and illustrated in …

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NonProphets Podcast: Forecasting Global Catastrophe

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum was interviewed about forecasting and preventing global catastrophes on NonProphets. NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting hosted in part by GCRI Director of Communications Robert de Neufville. You can download the podcast here.

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Seth Baum Appointed to Advisory Board of AI & Society

GCRI’s Seth Baum has been appointed to the Advisory Board of the journal AI & Society. AI & Society is an interdisciplinary journal focused on societal issues related to artificial intelligence including the design, use, management, and policy of information, communications and new media technologies, with a particular emphasis on cultural, social, cognitive, economic, ethical, and philosophical implications.

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GCRI Experts Featured In Science Magazine

GCRI’s Seth Baum and Dave Denkenberger are featured in an article in Science Magazine titled “Here’s how the world could end—and what we can do about it”.

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Podcast: Earthquakes As Global Catastrophic Risk

GCRI’s Seth Baum participated in a podcast hosted by Ariel Conn of the Future of Life Institute (FLI) on the question of whether earthquakes could be a global catastrophic risk. You can listen to the podcast here.

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January Newsletter: Vienna Conference on Nuclear Weapons

Dear friends,

In December, I had the honor of speaking at the Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons, hosted by the Austrian Foreign Ministry in the lavish Hofburg Palace. The audience was 1,000 people representing 158 national governments plus leading nuclear weapons NGOs, experts, and members of the media.

My talk “What is the risk of nuclear war?” presented core themes from the risk analysis of nuclear war. I explained that each of us is, on average, more likely to die from nuclear war …

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Interview At Arup Connect

Quick FYI: I’m featured in a new interview at Arup Connect, which is the online magazine of Arup, a multinational engineering company working on the built environment. Basically, they help build stuff. The interview was conducted by Sarah Wesseler, who I met at a Science Writers in New York. Ah networking. Anyway the interview covers why we started GCRI, some of the challenges and opportunities, and more.

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