View the paper “The Challenge of Analyzing Global Catastrophic Risks”

The quantification of global catastrophic risks in terms of their probabilities and severities is difficult, but it is important for many decisions. Likewise, the fields of risk and decision analysis have much to offer the study of global catastrophic risk. This short paper summarizes the challenge of quantitatively analyzing global catastrophic risks. I was invited by the Decision Analysis Society to write this for their publication Decision Analysis Today.

As the paper explains, the quantification of global …

GCRI is hosting a session on Global Catastrophic Risks at the 2019 meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in Arlington, VA. SRA is the leading professional society for all types of risk. SRA brings together researchers from many disciplines as well as professionals from government, industry, nonprofits, and other sectors.

GCRI Director of Research Tony Barrett is chairing the session. It will feature talks by GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum, GCRI Special Advisor for Government Affairs Jared Brown, GCRI Senior Advisor Gary Ackerman, University …

Dear friends,

One reason it is important to analyze the global catastrophic risks quantitatively is that some decisions involve tradeoffs between them. An action may reduce one risk while increasing another. It’s important to know whether the decrease in the one risk is large enough to offset the increase in the other.

This month, we announce a new paper that presents a detailed analysis of one such decision: the use of nuclear explosives to deflect Earthbound asteroids away. Nuclear deflection is an option under active consideration by …

View the paper “Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection”

If an asteroid is found to be on collision course with Earth, it may be possible to deflect it away. One way of deflecting asteroids would be to use nuclear explosives. A nuclear deflection program may reduce the risk of an asteroid collision, but it might also inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war or other violent conflict. This paper analyzes this potential tradeoff and evaluates its policy implications. The paper is published in …